NFL Preview: Super Bowl Prediction

Yesterday, I did a division by division examination of the NFL, predicting the 4 division winners and 6 playoff teams from each conference. Today, I will be taking those teams and attempting to project which two will be representing their respective conferences in Arizona come February. Before I did that though, here are some fun notes about yesterday’s predictions.

• I gave a pretty negative account of the league, as I predicted 247 wins and 265 losses across the board. Most league predictions are overwhelmingly positive. With many more wins being assigned than losses.
• I booted two playoff teams from each conference that made it last season and only changed the division champion in two divisions, the NFC South and the AFC North, which means I expect repeat champions in 6 of the 8 divisions.
• The only teams in the AFC projected to have winning records are the playoff teams, in my NFC projections, 8 teams are projected to have winning records with one team at .500.
• No 4th place team in the AFC was projected to finish with more than 4 wins, No 4th place team in the NFC was projected to finish with less than 5 wins.

Now, on to the Playoff Predictions:

To refresh, here are my projected AFC Playoff Teams with seeding and records.

AFC Playoff Seeding:  Bold = First Round Bye

1. Indianapolis Colts  12-4  (Win Opener Against Denver for Tiebreaker)

2. Denver Broncos 12-4

3. New England Patriots 11-5

4. Baltimore Ravens 10-6

5. San Diego Chargers 11-5

6. Pittsburgh Steelers 9-7

 

The Playoff Projections are as follows:

Wild Card Round:

#3 New England over #6 Pittsburgh         #5 San Diego over #4 Baltimore

 

Divisional Round:

#5 San Diego over #1 Indianapolis     #3 New England over #2 Denver 

 

AFC Title Game:

#3 New England over #5 San Diego 

 

San Diego is built for a deep playoff run, they have a well balanced offensive attack led by a high level quarterback in Philip Rivers, and are buoyed by a strong defense. Their balance will see them over lesser versions of themselves in both Baltimore and Indianapolis. The Patriots enter 2014 as probably the most balanced team in the AFC, with the only possible question regarding the stoutness of their run defense. Brady will be armed with a greater chemistry with his wide-outs and will look much sharper throughout the campaign than he did in 2013. Pittsburgh in the Wild Card round is a potential trap game, but ultimately the road game in new England will be too much for the Steelers rebuilding defense to overcome. but Denver’s age will catch up with them in the playoffs, regardless of who they meet in the divisional round. In the conference title game, I have the Pats overcoming the Chargers due to both the location of the game (New England) and the fact that the Pats are simply the deeper side.

 

Now, for the NFC, here are my projected playoff teams.

NFC Playoff Seeding  (1st Round Byes in Bold)

1. Seattle Seahawks  13-3

2. New Orleans Saints  12-4

3. Green Bay Packers 11-5

4. Philadelphia Eagles 10-6

5. Arizona Cardinals 10-6

6. Chicago Bears 10-6

 

The playoff predictions are as follows:

Wild Card Round:

#3 Green Bay over #6 Chicago            #4 Philadelphia over #5 Arizona

 

Divisional Round:

#3 Green Bay over #2 New Orleans      #1 Seattle over #4 Philadelphia

 

NFC Title Game:

#1 Seattle over #3 Green Bay

 

Both NFC Title Game participants will arrive there by way of favorable playoff schedules. The Packers, with their superior balance will likely be able to handle the Bears at Lambeau. The next week, in New Orleans, Rodgers will do what he always does in domes, namely, put up 30 or 40 points to beat the Saints on their own turf. Seattle will be more than happy to welcome Philadelphia to their home, where communication issues will cut the speed of Chip Kelly’s offense. In good faith, I can’t, at this stage say that Green Bay would be Seattle in Seattle, as there is so much yet to be proven about the Packers. Additionally, Pete Carroll and the Seahawks are entering the 2014 with minimal losses to the defense, offensive upgrades, and a swagger that no one has had an answer for as of yet. Also of note, every game that has been projected in these NFC playoffs will be a rematch of a game from the 2014 regular season.

Thus, all that is left is the Super Bowl. Will it be Seattle with the repeat, or New England with their first title of the decade?

Super Bowl XLIX

New England Patriots  20

Vs.

Seattle Seahawks 24

History may not favor this pick, but Seattle is the team with the least questions heading into the 2014 season. Seattle will be able to pressure and hit Brady throughout the affair, as well as create discomfort in a still-young wide receiving group. Marshawn Lynch will run wild over a suspect New England defensive line, opening up passing lanes for Russell Wilson as the Pats are forced to bring more men up into the box to stop the run. The Pats will hang around, but ultimately won’t be able to get the ball back from Seattle at the end of the game, and the Seahawks will win their second Super Bowl in as many seasons, proving that defense does indeed still win Championships.

 

Agree or disagree? The pick of a repeat champions can’t be too popular. We always want to hear from you folks.

 

 

 

NFL Preseason Week 1: Thursday Recap, Friday Preview

 

 

It was a crazy night of football Thursday as the Preseason began in earnest. From tight games, to disappointing debuts, to weather delays, to Kansas City running everything back for touchdowns, it was one of the more memorable preseason game nights in recent memory. I hope you enjoy my brief recaps of each game on the slate from Thursday night, as well as my previews for tomorrow night’s affairs.

Thursday Recap:

Indianapolis Colts 10 At  New York Jets   13

                The first and second stringers played a very even game in New York Thrusday Night before the game fell into typical preseason quagmire status. Andrew Luck and the Colts moved down the field on the first drive, picking up a quick field goal before his early exit. Geno Smith did much the same in his time at the helm of New York. Both #2 offenses also put up touchdowns. The Colts suffered a number of injuries to their offensive and defensive lines over the course of the game. The line injuries, specifically to starting center Khaled Holmes had a profound impact on Indy’s look for the rest of the game. For New York, Chris Johnson did not look particularly explosive despite picking up a touchdown from short range, however, if one game is any indication, don’t expect a career renaissance for him.

 

New England Patriots 6   At Washington Redskins 23

 

                The Patriots are a team renowned for their poor preseason efforts, but they may have taken things to a whole new level on Thursday Night. Tom Brady’s backup Ryan Mallet, who is hoping to be up for a starting job somewhere before too long, struggled mightily, going 5/12 for 55 yards. While the Pats wheels were spinning, the Redskins collected a 13-0 halftime lead. RGIII made some extremely dangerous throws, but the Pats were never able to make him pay. A parade of Pats penalties and turnovers aided the Redskins throughout the contest as well. For Washington, they can consider this game a success, as they played well in all phases, and are starting to create positive momentum. Patriots fans will be able to take solace in the play of rookie Jimmy Garoppolo, who guided two drives deep into Washington territory, throwing a touchdown on his last one.

 

San Francisco 49ers 3 At   Baltimore Ravens 23

               

                All week, when I discussed this game, I talked about how the team who could maintain a high level of energy and played well throughout would have their arrow pointing upwards because they would have established superior depth. Well, Baltimore displayed their superior depth Thursday Night, simply pounding a 49ers team that seems to have lost its defensive physicality. The 49ers were consistently gashed on the ground, and were routed in the Time of Possession department. I understand that the 49ers has backups on the field, but toughness is something which permeates an organization, and physically tough teams DO NOT GET GASHED. For the Ravens, it couldn’t have gone better, Gary Kubiak’s offense seems to be a perfect fit for the compliment of players the Ravens are armed with. 49ers fans can be happy with their opening drive, which went deep into Baltimore territory before being stopped, but after that, it was simply a mess for San Francisco.

 

Cincinnati Bengals 39 At Kansas City Chiefs 41

               

It was a night that the Chiefs and Bengals can both look at in either one of two ways. From one perspective, the Bengals put up a lot of offensive points, their offense looked good at a lot of points and the Chiefs defense didn’t look like it had all that much stopping power. On the other hand, the Chiefs had a pair of pick-sixes, a good kickoff return, and a punt return for a touchdown to set up 24 points. The Chiefs offense would add 17 points on top of that 24, meaning that they had a good night in all categories. The Bengals have to be disappointed with the lack of ball security, but they have time to improve on that before the regular season gets underway. Otherwise their offense moved the ball extremely well at all points of the affair. Overall, it was an ugly game for the defenses and special teams units in terms of stopping each other. Both teams are going to want to improve those aspects of their game moving forward.

 

Seattle At Denver: Recap will be Included in Friday Recap/Saturday Preview

 

Dallas At San Diego:  Recap will be Included in Friday Recap/Saturday Preview

 

Friday Preview:

Miami Dolphins At Atlanta Falcons   7:00 PM EST

                One thing preseason games can be used for, other than player evaluation, is to set the tone for a team going into a season. For Atlanta, they are looking to get more physical headed into 2014, as evidenced by the first episode of “NFL Hard Knocks” on Tuesday night. For any team looking to be more physical, the first game is absolutely critical. Falcons fans will want to see their team run the ball well and be stout against the run, regardless of which players are on the field. For Miami, they are looking to put last season’s trials behind them, and need to generate positivity any way they can. Dolphins fans will be happy on Friday if their offensive line plays well and if the offense looks a bit more dynamic. Miami needs a win to get the positive feelings going, for Atlanta, a solid physical effort will be enough.

 

Buffalo Bills At Carolina Panthers 7:30 PM EST

                This game carries with it a fair bit of interest, especially for Panthers’ fans chomping at the bit to see what their brand new receiving corps will look like in 2014. For Buffalo, they will want a better performance out of EJ Manuel for sure, as he is coming off a less-than-impressive Hall of Fame game. The Bills need to continue to run the ball well, and to play solid defense. They don’t need to win, just build off what they did last week. For Carolina, they need to find success through the air. The ground game, with Cam Newton and DeAngelo Williams, will be fine. Additionally, Panthers’ fans are going to want to watch for defensive depth, especially in the secondary, as a few pieces have been lost on that end this off-season.

 

Tampa Bay Buccaneers At Jacksonville Jaguars 7:30 PM EST

                One word….Blake Bortles. It will be important that the rookie has a good outing, if only for the confidence of Jaguars fans. He’ll have to work with a depleted receiving group though, so any success he has will only be more impressive. As I mentioned my Podcast, you are going to want to watch the Tampa Bay defense. Expect them to be much more structured and much more difficult to rip off big plays against. For Tampa Bay, they are going to want to show something on offense, it doesn’t have to be much, but just something to show that they are moving in the right direction. Also, fair warning to folks who watch this, it’ll probably become completely unwatchable by the 4^th quarter given the quality of 3^rd stringers these teams likely have on hand.

Philadelphia Eagles At Chicago Bears 8:00 PM EST

                A rematch of a Week 16 contest that the Bears would rather forget will grace our computers/televisions on Friday evening. Chicago needs to display more depth at receiver, obviously Marshall and Jeffery are great players, but if the Bears are truly going to be a heavy NFC threat, they need to be able to create more match-up problems with their offense. Chicago will also be happy with any sort of positive defensive effort, so long as the first unit gets out of the game without allowing a touchdown, Bears’ fans can probably call this one a win. For the Eagles, they will get to test out their super deep offense, but are going to want to see something more out of their defense. Essentially these two clubs are looking for the same thing, a solid defensive effort.

 

Oakland Raiders At Minnesota Vikings 8:00 PM EST

                The University of Minnesota’s TFC Bank Field will get its first workout of the year in what will probably be the game of the night, if not the game of the week in this first week of the preseason. If you like quarterback battles, this game has up to five QB’s competing for two jobs. For Oakland, Derek Carr and Matt Schaub are going to be fighting for the number one job. Schaub likely has it in hand at this point, but if he fails to regain his confidence this preseason, and Carr excels, the former Texans quarterback will likely be on the bench come week one. As for Minnesota, they have a three-way quarterback race between Teddy Bridgewater, Matt Cassel, and Christian Ponder. Early reports are that Cassel and Bridgewater are the front runners, but nothing can really be decided outside of live action.

 

New Orleans At St. Louis 8:00 PM EST

                This will be a game between two teams looking to accomplish very different things this preseason. For New Orleans, their top priority is staying healthy and perhaps finding a few fringe players to make their 53-man roster. For St. Louis, which is a team with a much more fluid roster situation, they will be looking to evaluate talent and get better every single week. Saints fans can be happy with a clean bill of health. Rams’ fans will likely be content with a solid performance by the first stringers, followed by a dominant performance by the second stringers. A good performance by a team’s second group generally indicates that that team will be heading in a positive direct.

 

Thank you for reading! You can check out Non-Sequitur Sports’ most recent podcast here

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Good luck to all of your teams, have fun, and stay safe!

NFL Preview: Preseason Week 1: Thursday Night

 

The Preseason begins in earnest tomorrow night! Here is a look at the slate of games to pick from.

 

Indianapolis Colts   At New York Jets   7:00 PM EST

                Not much of interest in this preseason contest, as both teams have a pretty set stable of starters. Watch for the Jets depth, as it will be a key to their success in 2014. Also, watch for the Jets’ running backs. Rex Ryan appears set on having a committee system at the running back position in 2014, but if someone breaks out in the preseason that plan could easily shift. For the Colts, it will likely be a standard game of protecting starters and seeing what the young guys have. All in all, there isn’t much to see here.

 

San Francisco 49ers At Baltimore Ravens 7:30 PM EST NFLN

                As I mentioned in my podcast, this is a big game for measuring the depth of two teams that need to display it. The 49ers are starting to age, and it will be important for them to establish that they have a young core capable of picking up the slack. It will also be interesting to see if anyone can step up and seize the backup running back position behind Frank Gore, as the 49ers have suffered injuries to their second and third string backs. For the Ravens, they need to show that their young players have developed into better players, as the team was hampered by inexperience, especially on the defensive side of the ball last season. If you watch the game, make sure you follow the 2^nd string teams closely, because the players on those units will be the guys who will have to step in during the regular season to push these teams over the top.

 

New England Patriots At Washington Redskins 7:30 PM EST

                The Patriots are easily the worst team to watch in the preseason simply because they don’t risk exposing their starters to injury. That means no Brady, no Gronkowski, and really nothing that makes the Patriots the Patriots. However, we will get a chance to look at Ryan Mallet, who is supposedly a young quarterback ready to make the transition to starter somewhere. As such, this will be a critical preseason for the Pats backup quarterback. As for the Redskins, they have tended to post very successful preseason campaigns. I’m not really sure how much to expect from them, but watch RGIII when he is in the game. If he is moving well throughout his few series, then that bodes very well for the Redskins.

 

Cincinnati Bengals At Kansas City Chiefs   8:00 PM EST

                Again, there isn’t really much to note in this one, as neither team is likely to expose anything too spectacular. The big thing to watch the way Kansas City approaches defense. After a disastrous outing in their playoff loss to Indianapolis, expect the Chiefs to use the preseason to set a bit of a tone defensively heading into the regular season. As for Cincy, there really aren’t any storylines of note.

 

Seattle Seahawks At Denver Broncos 9:00 PM EST

                It may be a Super Bowl rematch, but there isn’t much of a reason to watch this one. Both Seattle and Denver will likely be using this game for the singular purpose of player evaluation. If you do tune in, watch how the referees call the game, especially with Seattle on the field. Many, including myself, believe that the NFL’s desire to enforce the rules regarding illegal contact and pass interference will hurt Seattle perhaps more than any other team due to the physical nature of their play. If the flags end up flying early and often against the Seahawks defense, then Seattle may have a bit of a problem on the horizon.

 

Dallas Cowboys At San Diego Chargers 10:00 PM EST NFLN

                Amid rumors that Tony Romo’s deep ball has been affected by his off-season back surgery, the Cowboys will meet San Diego in their first game of the preseason on Thursday. Romo is not expected to play, but any chance to view this Cowboys team will be welcome, considering that they have become very young and very unknown in the off-season, especially on defense. Speaking of defense, that is what Cowboys’ fans should be keeping an eye on tomorrow night. After such a poor year on that side of the ball in 2013, it would be encouraging to see Dallas keep the San Diego first teamers from finding the endzone. For the Chargers, they should just endeavor to escape the game without injury.

 

 

Thanks for reading folks! If you haven’t yet heard this week’s podcast, it is available here: NSQSports Podcast #1

If your team is in action on Thursday, I wish them the best of luck. Take care!

 

NFL Preview: Training Camp Edition: AFC EAST

The 2014-2015 NFL season is now in full swing as most if not all teams have broken ice on their training camps. Non-Sequitur Sports is returning with the season in the hopes of being able to provide more sustainable coverage of the 2014-2015 NFL season. My format will be a bit different this year, with more of a focus on individual games and happenings than on the league as a whole. For example, there will be no power rankings this season, and there are some weeks where I may not be able to post as much as I may like, however, I want to take another crack at covering this season to the best of my ability and resources. To start, I will be providing a rough and brief preview of each division leading up to the Hall-of-Fame game on August 3^rd. Please bear in mind that these predictions will probably change 1,000 times before the season starts, and are more an exercise of predicting what would happen if all teams went through the season without injuries or suspensions, which as we know will not be the case. I will begin in the AFC, more specifically with the AFC East.

                The New England Patriots may no longer be the type of dynasty that wins NFL Titles, but they are certainly a divisional dynasty in the AFC East. Since 2003, the Patriots have won their division every season since 2008, the greatest stretch of dominance by any team since the realignment in the 2002-2003 season. The Patriots are primed for another successful campaign in 2014-2015, equipped with an offense that has been battle tested by the experiences of a season ago. A more experienced receiving corps, mixed with a healthy Rob Gronkowski, a versatile backfield, and the NFL’s best offensive leader in Tom Brady, should lead New England to be much better on offense this season. On defense the question will be health. The Patriots are still in the process of a minor defensive rebuild, and though the addition of Derrelle Revis will put them at competitive strength in 2014-2015 there are still enough questions to give me pause in pushing them past Denver as the AFC’s Elite club. So long as Bill Belichick and Tom Brady are at the helm in New England, I’d be stunned to see the Pats unseated in the East.

                The only team that may have a shot of unseating them resides in New York, though it is highly unlikely that the Jets will be able to find consistent enough quarterback play to mount a serious challenge. It looks like another strong Rex Ryan defense will be unable to compensate for a struggling offense. This outlook could change if Geno Smith can pull together some consistent form in 2013-2014, but a difficult schedule will not be much of an aid in that. In the event Michael Vick gets into a game, his turnover problems will quickly sink the season for New York.

                Neither the Bills nor the Dolphins stand much chance of rising out of the bottom of the division. Buffalo has some intrigue with a young quarterback and the supposedly dynamic Sammy Watkins to throw to, but Buffalo simply does not have the depth on either side of the ball to mount any form of contention in this division. In some ways Miami may be even worse off, they attracted no notable players in the off-season and Joe Philbin is really going to have a tough job picking up the pieces after last season’s media firestorm. The only positive is the departure of the “so old-school you may as well be running the sweep every play” Mike Sherman as offensive coordinator. The offense will have to get more dynamic in 2014, because it certainly can’t get any less.

Overall, this is still the Pats division. The Jets may be able to mount a wildcard bid, and the Bills and Dolphins will likely putter around the basement hoping to score a few wins here and there. If you were to ask me to give a number of wins at this way-too-early juncture; I’d put Buffalo at around 6 or 7 wins and Miami at around 5 or 6 wins. The Pats should top out at anywhere from 11-13 wins, and the Jets will hover between 7-9 wins. Long story short, this division shouldn’t be much different than previous years, and that probably won’t change any time soon.

Thank you for reading, I will be back tomorrow with my AFC North Pre-Training Camp preview.

NFL Picks: Week 4

Hello again, it’s time for another round of NFL Picks. My Thursday Night upset selection didn’t pan out, but hopefully that won’t be a trend setter for the rest of the week. We have a number of interesting match-ups dotting the Week 4 NFL landscape, as some teams are fighting to keep their fast starts going while others already find themselves fighting for survival.

Week 4:

Byes: Carolina Panthers, Green Bay Packers

Baltimore  (2-1) At Buffalo  (1-2)  1:00 PM EST, CBS

This is a tough one to predict simply because I’m not sure which Baltimore team will show up, but Buffalo needs to start cashing in on all the promise that they have been showing. However, until Buffalo shows a commitment to the running game, I’m going to have a hard time picking them, especially on the shoulders of a rookie quarterback.

Baltimore 24 Buffalo 17

Cincinnati (2-1) At Cleveland (1-2)  1:00 PM EST, CBS

Cleveland may have gotten a late win against Minnesota last week, but they are going to be very hard pressed to take out what is a good looking Cincinnati team. Turnover problems still worry be about Cincinnati, but Cleveland hasn’t been much better on that front, plus, Cincy is simply the better side.

Cincinnati 30  Cleveland 17

Chicago (3-0) At Detroit (2-1)  1:00 PM  EST, FOX

Detroit has managed to pick up two wins, but they have come against less than stellar competition. Both teams have played reasonably soft schedules to compile their fast starts, but I think Chicago has clearly been the best team. I don’t trust Detroit yet, I’ve just seen too many mistakes coming on the part of the Lions.

Chicago 28  Detroit 23

Seattle (3-0) At Houston (2-1)  1:00 PM EST, FOX

Houston was poor in their victories against average teams and really bad in their one game against a better AFC foe. Seattle has been on top of everybody they’ve faced so far, and this week should be no different. Houston needs to get that running attack going if they want a shot at the postseason this year.

Seattle 35  Houston 27

Indianapolis (2-1) At Jacksonville (0-3)  1:00 PM EST, CBS

 This is as close to a default win as a team will find in the NFL. Jacksonville is horrible, I’d even venture to say that they are the worst team of the 2010’s so far. Even worse, the ownership doesn’t seem to want to make an effort to get out of this train wreck. At least Cleveland has already started to blow things up. Colts win.

Indianapolis 34  Jacksonville 10

New York Giants (0-3) At Kansas City (3-0)  1:00 PM EST,  FOX

The Giants were just destroyed by one strong defense, and I don’t think they’ll fair particularly well against another. Kansas City will also be coming off of an extended bye week and will be going up against yet another foe that Andy Reid has extensive experience with. Even if the Chiefs start 4-0, Jacksonville and three NFC East teams don’t exactly qualify as a difficult strength of schedule. I’ll definitely be interested to see how they fair when Denver is on the schedule.

New York Giants 13  Kansas City 26

Pittsburgh (0-3) At Minnesota (0-3)  1:00 PM EST, CBS  (London)

For wanting to expand the game across the pond, the NFL sure hasn’t done very much in the way of putting together interesting contests. This would be like if Crystal Palace and Hull City were to come play a premiership match in Washington. Don’t know who those two teams are? No worries, you’re not missing out, just like how the Londoners won’t be missing out if they don’t come to this contest.

Pittsburgh 20  Minnesota 21

Arizona (1-2) At Tampa Bay (0-3)  1:00 PM EST, FOX

Carson Palmer struggled mightily last week for Arizona, and the Cards have now had the worst of it in twice this season. I like Tampa Bay in this one, almost especially because they made a change at quarterback, it seemed like Josh Freeman had lost the team and I think almost anything could be better than their 3 point performance last week. Arizona has the more cohesive offense and that should power them to victory in this one.

Arizona 26  Tampa Bay 20

New York Jets (2-1) At Tennessee (2-1)  4:05 PM EST, CBS

The Jets have managed to reach 2-1 on the strength of their defense, although Geno Smith has been serviceable enough in his first three appearances at quarterback. I have to go with Tennessee in this one as they have taken down one average AFC team and were an overtime loss away from knocking off Houston and being undefeated. I still can’t shake New York’s offensive instability, and thus can’t go with them this week.

New York Jets 19  Tennessee 26

Philadelphia (1-2) At Denver (3-0) 4:25 PM EST, FOX

Philadelphia might be able to hang in for a bit, but any offensive mistakes will spell their doom against this potent Denver offense. I don’t think Philly’s defense will be up to the task of shutting down Peyton Manning, and I fully expect his statistical phenomenon of a season to continue.

Philadelphia 27  Denver 42

Washington (0-3) At Oakland (1-2)  4:25 EST, FOX

Washington could very well pick up their first win this week, with Terrell Pryor’s health not guaranteed and RGIII continuing to put up good statistical performances. I don’t like the Washington defense, but I think their offense is good enough  to make up for any lapses that might happen this week. I like the Redskins to pull off the upset and stick their nose back in the NFC East race.

Washington 29  Oakland 23

Dallas (2-1) At San Diego (1-2) 4:25 PM EST, FOX

San Diego has been a very difficult to team to predict so far this year, dropping two games by a combined 6 points. I must say that I like them this week against Dallas, primarily because the Cowboys are known to struggle when it comes to road contests. Phillip Rivers has been statistically clean this season, throwing for 8 touchdown passes and only 1 interception. Dallas has looked good in their two wins, but I still have questions about their ability to get a road win against an average grade opponent.

Dallas 24  San Diego 30

New England (3-0) At Atlanta (1-2)  8:30 PM EST, NBC

This is a game of paramount importance for Atlanta, as they must get a win in order to keep pace with the surging Saints. Early reports are indicating that the Pats will once again be without Gronkowski and Amendola, which means that Brady will once again have to rely on an inexperienced corps of receivers, except this week, he’ll be taking on a team that can actually score points. This is New England’s first real test of the 2013 season, and in their injury riddled state, I think they will fail it against against a much more desperate Atlanta side.

New England 20  Atlanta 25

Miami (3-0) At New Orleans (3-0) Monday 8:40 PM EST, ESPN

The schedule makers probably didn’t have this game in mind when putting together big match-ups during the off-season, and yet this is a huge game for both teams as it is their first real game against a strong opponent. I like New Orleans in this one based on what they have shown on both sides of the ball this season. Miami has the ability to control the ball, but New Orleans comes equipped with a veteran offense that is battle tested. I’ll always take that over a flavor of the month.

Miami 27  New Orleans 34

Last Week: 9-7

Season Record: 30-19

Overall Record: 30-19

NFL Picks: Week 2 Thursday Edition

Last week was a fairly decent week for me in terms of picking games in the NFL. I nearly picked several games to perfection, but unfortunately missed badly on quite a few others (see Pittsburgh-Tennessee). Tonight we have an interesting match-up on our hands, as New England will be up against their second AFC East foe in as many weeks, while the Jets of New York will be seeking to get off to an unexpected 2-0 start.

New York Jets (1-0) At New England Patriots (1-0)  

Time: 8:25 PM EST

Location: Gillette Stadium, Foxborough, MA

TV Info: NFL Network

Referee: Carl Cheffers

Betting Line: NE by 11

Over/Under: 42

The New England-New York Jets rivalry is one of the most intense in all of the AFC, still fueled by the memories of bounty gate and sustained by the contrast in styles between the fiery Rex Ryan and frigid Bill Belichick. However, over the last couple seasons, the Jets have faltered while the Patriots have remained as strong as ever, and as we head into Thursday night’s game, the Patriots are the clear favorites. Despite the Jets’ victory last week, not much was answered in the way of questions. Their defense is certainly very solid, but their offense still doesn’t look capable of very much. Fortunately, the Patriots offense may be stuck in slow-motion as well, especially if Danny Amendola is unable to go tonight. Julian Edelman should be able to step in and be productive in the slot, but you have to worry about their overall depth behind him. The fact that Tom Brady is the quarterback though, still means that the Pats will put up points. Ultimately however, I think this is a game that will come down to how well the Jets can preform against the New England defense. The Patriots D proved solid last week against Buffalo, despite being placed in some bad situations. Geno Smith is going to have to take it to the next level, and the offense as a whole is going to need to run the ball if the Jets hope to win. Personally, I think pulling off a road win in New England is a tough ask for any team, and that the Jets aren’t a team that can do it.

New York Jets 16  New England 24

Last Week’s Record: 10-6

Season Record: 10-6

Games Picked Perfectly: 0

Enjoy the Game Folks!

NFL Recap: 5 Things We Learned From Week 1

The first week on the NFL season is always a time for optimism and hope, everyone is even headed into the day, and dreams of Super Bowl glory don’t seem to be any more than 21 weeks away. Of course then we actually play the games. The results from Week 1 were a mixed bag, but pretty much went as expected. Results in the first week don’t have a huge impact in the standings but can occasionally have a large psychological impact. With two games left still to play, here are 5 things we can take away from the first week of the year.

1. Pittsburgh and Jacksonville Are BAD

I try not to rush to judgments too early in the season, but in the case of Pittsburgh and Jacksonville, I have a very difficult time stopping myself. Both teams were very poor in their home openers, with Jacksonville getting blown out 28-2 (the first time that score has been recorded in NFL history) by Kansas City and Pittsburgh falling to Tennessee 16-9. It could be long year in Pittsburgh, especially with injuries now cropping up along the offensive line. As for Jacksonville, I can’t imagine Blaine Gabbert (who has been declared out of next week’s game with an injured hand) will be the guy much longer. Expect these two teams to be floating around the bottom of the standings come the end of the season.

2. The AFC East looks competitive (for once)

It was a good day for the AFC East, as three of the four teams in the division took care of business. The lone loser, Buffalo, aquitted themselves very well against an uncharacteristically mistake prone New England Patriots club. Miami downed Cleveland 23-10 and the Jets upset Tampa Bay on a last second field goal, 18-17. All of these teams (except New York) seemed to improve in the off-season, but the general assumption has been that the Patriots are still the kings. While there has been nothing to say that will change by season’s end, it might wind up being closer than people think.

3. FUMBLE!!!!!

It was a bad day for running backs across the NFL yesterday, as only Shane Vereen of the New England Patriots rushed for 100 yards yesterday. More concerning however, was the rash on fumbles that plagued the league. Vereen’s counterpart Stevan Ridley fumbled once and found himself riding the bench for the rest of the game. Carolina’s DeAngelo Williams had a key red zone fumble with under 6 minutes to go in Carolina which ended up costing the Panthers a shot at winning the game. In Miami, touted rookie Lamar Miller had under 10 yards over 10 carries. For Green Bay, Eddie Lacy had a key fumble in the first half which led to a San Francisco Touchdown in the Packers’ eventual 34-28 loss. Lastly, you had the Giants, whose running back situation was an unmitigated disaster in their 36-31 loss to Dallas. If anyone was hoping that the league would trend back to running in the near future, the first week of 2013 showed why that isn’t going to happen.

4. The NFC is Deep

There were 8 NFC vs. NFC match-ups on Sunday, and only 1 of them was decided by more than 6 points. When a mid-range team like Carolina is a fumble away from upsetting a top-tier team like Seattle, or a mid-range team like New Orleans does upset a top-tier team like Atlanta, you know that the conference is very impressive. Of the 6 AFC vs. AFC games already played, only 3 of them have been decided by 7 points or less, which indicates that there is a bigger talent gap in the AFC. In head-to-head competition, the conferences went 1-1.

5. There are Only Two Real Favorites:

With the struggles of Seattle, New England, Green Bay, Atlanta, Baltimore and the Giants, the League only has to look as far as San Francisco and Denver as the Super Bowl favorites right now. The 49ers and Broncos are the only teams that played up to their usual par in Week 1, and while Seattle and New England both won, I don’t think anybody can claim that they are worry free at this stage. Green Bay looked good in defeat, but now face new questions about their secondary. Atlanta’s vaunted offense only put up 17 points in a loss against what was perceived to be a weak Saints’ defense, while Baltimore and New York both had rough openers from a fundamentals perspective. It will be interesting to see who else can enter the mix during the early stages of the season.

That will do it for my recap of Sunday’s action, be sure to check back tomorrow for my Power Rankings as we proceed full steam ahead into Week 2. Enjoy the games tonight everyone.

NFL Preview Power Rankings: Team #4

Since their Super Bowl title in the 2001-2002 season, no team in the NFL has been as consistently dominant than the New England Patriots. In a weird twist of fate, it also makes them one of the least exciting teams in the NFL. After all, when you are a lock to win your division every single season and your coach seems like he’s reading from a generic script every press conference, there can’t be much to talk about. Success in New England is measured by playoff success, and although they have been to the Super Bowl twice since their last victory in the 2004-2005 season they haven’t won. a fact which I am sure irks New England fans everywhere. Despite this, the fact that they are always in a position to compete in is impressive in itself. Many are predicting the demise of New England this season due to the fact that the receiving corps is extremely young. Will this be the case in 2013?

Team #4: New England Patriots

Overview:

When I hear that the Patriots are going to drop off this season, I can’t help but think that people have been saying that for the last 5 seasons. One of the hallmarks of a draft-and-develop franchise like New England is that they know how to work with young talent. For example, the idea that a young receiving corps is going to spell doom for New England is irreconcilable with the fact that Tom Brady is the quarterback. Brady had made almost every receiver that has come to New England productive. Wes Welker would never have had the career he did if he didn’t spend most of it with Brady in New England. This is one quarterback who will be productive regardless of who he is throwing to. Even if the Pats offense does take a step back this season, they put up a league high 557 points last season (76 higher than the next closest team), so I think they can afford it. The problem with New England is very similar to the problem Green Bay will face in the NFC, can they handle physical opponents? Last season New England lost to Baltimore (twice), Seattle, and San Francisco. It is no small coincidence that those three teams were considered the league’s most physical. New England, especially on the offensive end, is going to have to find a way to get more physical in order to compete with the top tier teams in the league, and I’m not sure that they have the tools for that this season.

 

Offense:

Behind a very solid offensive line, I expect Tom Brady to be just a good as ever. Age may have caught up to him in regard to his ability (or lack thereof) to escape pressure, but its rare to actually see Brady under duress. So long as that trend continues, and it should, the offense should be just fine. New England hasn’t really had a feature runner over the course of their time as top dogs in the NFL, and this season is no different. Steven Ridley should receiver the lion’s share of the work, but both Vereen and Bolden are solid change-of-pace options and LeGarrette Blount is a plain and simple short yardage back. The backfield is very diversified, which in New England often means success. At receiver, Danny Amendola is going to have to lead the way. However, no one is better suited to the role of top receiver than Amendola who preformed the same function in St. Louis to perfection. The only concern with him is injury. Behind him Julian Edelman, Kenbrell Tompkins, and Aaron Dobson all provide a strong rotation. As Tompkins and Dobson get more comfortable, I’d expect production to improve. Tight End will be a questionable position until Rob Gronkowski returns from injury. His activation from the PUP list is good news, especially because New England would like him back before their week 4 trip to Atlanta. Overall, I think the offense will be fine this season. They may not start off particularly fast, but a weak schedule at the front end of the season will allow for development and will help insure the unit is prepared for more difficult late season match-ups. 

 

Defense:

The Patriots possess a very stable defensive unit which focuses on not giving up the big play and on making big plays of their own. The unit only surrendered 331 points last season, and while that is not quite as good as the top tier defenses in the league, it is certainly much better than their 31st ranked defense in 2011. A lot starts with their ability to stop the run. Veteran defensive tackle Vince Wilfork is nigh impossible to get by with employing a double team. Unfortunately, that leaves a defensive end like Rob Ninkovich with one less guy to worry about. It’s a strategy New England has always done well utilizing since the arrival of Wilfork. Expect nothing to change in that regard in 2013. The line-backing corps, led by Jerod Mayo and Brandon Spikes is very good. They do a nice job in stopping the run and bottling up opposing quarterbacks. This is a defense of functionality, as not one guy is asked to do more than what their assigned role is. In the secondary, the addition of Aqib Talib is huge, as it bolsters a unit whose only recognizable force was safety Devin McCourty. This section of the defense is going to be the real question mark headed into 2013. Fortunately, the Patriots do not face any huge passing tests within their division (E.J. Manuel is Buffalo could change that). Expect that Week 4 game in Atlanta to show where this unit is at. In all, I expect this to be a very solid and average unit. They will keep Tom Brady and this offense in games, which is really all the Patriots need them to do. 

 

Best-Case Scenario: The Patriots dominate their own division, Tom Brady makes this corps of wide receivers into one of the league’s top groups, and the defense holds solid just enough for the Patriots to have a shot at every game they play en route to a 13-3 record and potentially home field advantage.

Worst-Case Scenario: The lack of offensive weapons hurts Brady early in the year, while a more difficult division hands New England a few unexpected losses. The average defense remains average, but key injuries make it so that it becomes a liability. The Pats finish 11-5, but drop their first playoff game.

 

I like New England this year, they are a little under most people’s radar, but I don’t think a team with Tom Brady on it should ever be under the radar.